Top Volume - A Tight Range

Stocks are in a tough tight range. The market went into a cold mix mode, down first then up and then down again. Could be a boring day but well, it's a good day to monitor some good counters in my watchlist for actions next week. The most important buy is always at the right timing and hence trades will not be stuck if a good stock is picked. Don't miss our next Tuesday workshop.



Ronald K - Market Psychologist - A Stock Market Opportunist

STI - Early Selling

Early selling in STI detected. Early morning blog post @ 8:55 am about sellers haven was correct. Will this selling continue to snowball into bigger wave of sellers later? We shall watch and see.

http://stockmarketmindgames.blogspot.sg/2016/07/singapore-straits-times-index-sellers.html



Ronald K - Market Psychologist - A Stock Market Opportunist

Singapore Straits Times Index - Sellers Haven

I expect sellers in the market today. Not a good day to long. Hence be alert of your long positions if any or look to lock in $. The STI had ran up too much with profit taking in place, definitely not wise on the long side.



Ronald K - Market Psychologist - A Stock Market Opportunist

Watching STI Together - We Were LIVE Trading

This morning was an easy to predict day because not only I made a pre market forecast in my private forum at 7:46am in the morning but I believe this small group of traders who watch me traded LIVE were convinced of how I picked a stock and predicted the prices fluctuation precisely according to the market outlook. See my pre market prediction.

http://stockmarketmindgames.blogspot.sg/2016/06/s-500-selling.html

At 9am when market started, we were all logon to our trading platforms and scouting for the right stock to take a trade on. Finally we found one and took a quick scalp on it and everyone who attended made $ on the spot. Well, I will be conducting another LIVE Trading soon and as the market is getting more exciting after a flush, so is stock picking equally important. I will be giving out Whatsapp soon if I see movements in certain stocks. Stay tune and for those who are interested in our Whatsapp alerts, you can register for my talk below.



Ronald K - Market Psychologist - A Stock Market Opportunist

Recent Action - Fraser Centerpoint Trust (FCT)

In my previous post, I wrote an article about how the market has been surging since the Brexit event takes place. It is indeed very surprising to me as with anybody why this is happening. This could very well be the start of a secular bull run continuing their rally since 2013.

During this period, I've divested a few rounds of FCT since I'm uncomfortable with the run-up. First, I divested my earlier stake of 7,000 shares at $1.985, and then today I divested another 8,000 shares at $2.11 and another 10,000 shares at $2.12. As of writing, I have NIL shares in FCT at the moment.

By divesting these shares, this is a part of my strategy to protect both my capital and profits and the proceeds would go to my savings which would be deployed upon available opportunity. Since Mr. Market is irrational in nature, the best way to take advantage of it is to exploit their weaknesses and be greedy when fearful, be fearful when greedy.

FCT management is aiming for a 9% increase in the rental reversion IRR for Northpoint once they completed their AEI. It's a positive shot for the long term though we are likely to see NPI compression for the next 3 quarters ahead.

The occupancy for Q2 would look to be at the lowest during the whole AEI, so we are likely to see a poorer earnings and a lower DPU in the short term. NPI is expected to reduce by about $1m in Q2 year on year so the impact should be minimal but given how they've been increasing every year, this should have a knee jerk reaction to investors who are short term minded. If that happens, that's probably a good entry time to load onto it more.

The NAV is currently at $1.91 which makes current share price valuation at a P/NAV of 1.12x which I think is slightly overvalued given the short to mid term headwinds. On the longer term, this should benefit from the integration of Woodland and Yishun integrated hub and I should be looking to re-enter closer to the NAV.

My Investment Portfolio (June 2016)

Brexit. The only word to describe market activities for this month. The volatile day to day movements presented opportunities for traders and investors alike. Whether its Brexit correction, post-Brexit rally etc, markets had been irrational at times. As long term investors, we should instead focus on the fundamentals of the companies that we are investing in, rather than being affected by short term market noises. Surprisingly, despite a volatile month, STI ended higher than last month at 2840 points. 

For this month, I have attended the following AGMs/EGMs/briefings - Natural Cool, General Magnetics, Cheung Woh, Transit-Mixed Concrete, Noble Group, Ascendas India Trust and Imperium Crown.

For my top 30 holdings, Best World continues its good run on news that its direct selling license in China had been secured. Isetan returned to the list after announcing that it will be selling its property at 112 Killiney Road. CapitaLand is also back into list after I accumulated the stock this month on share price weakness.

I have bought the following companies from the market this month - Bukit Sembawang Estates, BBR, CapitaLand, Chuan Hup, Hong Fok, iFAST, Kencana, Keppel Corp, Koh Brothers, LTC Corp, Mandarin Oriental, Overseas Education, Pan Hong, S i2i, Sing Holdings, SembCorp Industries, S'pore Shipping, UOL, Wing Tai and Yeo Hiap Seng. No sell trade was done.

I have participated in the following scrip dividend schemes this month - Aspial, AusNet Services, China Everbright, DBS, Maxi-Cash, OCBC, Raffles Medical, Tuan Sing, UIC, United Overseas Australia, UOB Kay Hian and UOL.

I have also accepted the following voluntary delisting/cash offers this month - CM Pacific, NOL and Select Group. My stake in Lantrovision was also being acquired via scheme of arrangement.

Next month will be another AGM season as most companies having financial year ending 31 March 2016 will be holding their AGMs. As usual, I will be attending some of these AGMs to get updates on the performance of these companies. I will also be conserving some cash to participate in Noble Group rights issue.

My S'pore Stock Portfolio - Top Holdings, cash investment only (correct as at 30 June 2016)

Top 30 Holdings (Sing$ Denominated shares)
1. United Engineers
2. Metro Holdings
3. Jardine C&C
4. Bonvests
5. Haw Par
6. Sarine Technologies 
7. Hong Fok
8. Hotel Grand Central
9. A-REIT
10. The Hour Glass
11. SGX
12. Hotel Royal
13. Bukit Sembawang Estates
14. Best World
15. Singapura Finance
16. Keppel T&T
17. GK Goh 
18. Old Chang Kee
19. UOL
20. Hong Leong Finance
21. ComfortDelgro
22. Hiap Hoe
23. Far East Orchard
24. CapitaMall Trust
25. Hotel Properties
26. Sing Investment & Finance
27. Isetan
28. Spindex
29. CapitaLand
30. Stamford Land 

Top 5 Holdings (US$ Denominated shares)
1. Jardine Strategic
2. Hong Kong Land 
3. Mandarin Oriental  
4. Jardine Matheson
5. Dairy Farm 

Top Holdings (HK$ Denominated shares)
1. Fortune REIT
2. Shangri-La Asia

Top Holdings (Aust$ Denominated shares)
1. AV Jennings

Top 5 Holdings (CPF OA investment)
1. Keppel Corp
2. Streettracks STI ETF
3. CapitaMall Trust
4. A-REIT
5. Challenger Technologies

My Hong Kong Stock Portfolio
1. Peace Mark Holdings - Under Voluntary Liquidation

My Australia Stock Portfolio
1. GPS Alliance Holdings Limited

My Unlisted Company Portfolio
1. Automated Touchstone Machines Ltd
2. Iconic Global Limited
3. Dongshan Group Ltd (formerly known as Greatronic Limited)
4. General Magnetics
5. Fastech Synergy
6. Beauty China- Under Liquidation
7. Memory Devices
8. Jurong Tech - In liquidation - Compulsory winding up (Insolvency)
9. FM Holdings
10. Zhonghui - In liquidation - Compulsory winding up (Insolvency)
11. FerroChina - Under Liquidation
12. FirstLink Investments
13. NEL Group
14. Jets Technics
15. Guangzhao Industrial Forest - In liquidation - Compulsory winding up (Insolvency)
16. Hongwei Technologies Limited (In Provisional Liquidation)
17. FDS Networks Group
18. Aussino Group - In liquidation - Creditors' voluntary winding up
19. China Oilfield Technology
20. China Milk Products Group

My Unit Trust Portfolio:
http://www.fundsupermart.com/main/community/Portfolio_View.svdo?id=P199

S&P 500 - Ceiling Target Met

As predicted earlier in the morning at 7:52am LIVE on my blog that the S&P 500 will hit the horizontal ceiling line which I depicted and I expect to see selling, as we see now, the S&P 500 suffered selling from the high in the morning till now. Click and see below:

http://stockmarketmindgames.blogspot.sg/2016/06/s-500-expect-some-selling.html

From the morning Fake Breakout clue circled in red to the distribution base built, the S&P 500 just could not withstand sellers after sellers, looking to lock in 3 days worth of profits. I had been predicting the S&P 500 since May and so far, I dare I am 99% accurate almost on a day to day basis. Click and read all my S&P 500 posts below:

http://stockmarketmindgames.blogspot.sg/search/label/s%26p%20500

I will be sharing more on how to use CFD to trade the S&P 500 on my next Tuesday workshop. Interested parties can register:



Ronald K - Market Psychologist - A Stock Market Opportunist

S&P 500 - Selling

The S&P 500 selling started after my earning post at 7:52am. Click and see below:

http://stockmarketmindgames.blogspot.sg/2016/06/s-500-expect-some-selling.html

In private forum, I made an early morning post at 7:46am that the STI would suffer selling and true to the prediction, the STI gap up and started suffered selling. See the STI chart attached above.



Ronald K - Market Psychologist - A Stock Market Opportunist

S&P 500 - Expect Some Selling

The S&P 500 rose yesterday according to my prediction last evening when I made a blog post at 9:03am. Although it did not suffer much selling nor reach any buying region, still it rose and respected the horizontal line of the ceiling I drew where it finally met some selling. I expect more sellers today and hence it's not wise to go long in the short term. I will watch if it materializes.

I will be sharing some S&P 500 tips and tricks of how to make forward prediction together with my Whatsapp call alerts next Tuesday. If you loving trading and want to know the dos and don'ts, click and register below for next Tuesday's workshop.



Ronald K - Market Psychologist - A Stock Market Opportunist

S&P 500 - This is How It Will Play Out Today

This is how the S&P 500 will fare today as per my analysis. In the 5 min chart, I expect it to hit the ceiling, then suffer selling and then reaching a buying zone point, take a small breather before continuing it's up move. We shall see if it materialized.



Ronald K - Market Psychologist - A Stock Market Opportunist

Singapore Straits Times Index - Closing Higher

The market trended higher with a lot of furious buyers during 2nd half of day. It seemed that the market suddenly went into a buoyant mode with blue chip stocks running in the background. Looking at some penny stocks, it's not the time for those stocks to run and blue chips need to take charge first before rotating back to the pennies. I need to observe more tomorrow.



Ronald K - Market Psychologist - A Stock Market Opportunist

Top Volume Counters - Tough Day

It's a tough day in the market with so many counters stagnant and not moving. I think the market may need to take a breather before another wave of up move can happen. During this period, it wise to watch and stay out first. Decide next course of action later.



Ronald K - Market Psychologist - A Stock Market Opportunist

Vard - Break Out in Top Volume

Vard currently breaking out in Top Volume with rising price. I believe the stock is bullish and is in the strong hands of the big boys. Maybe running higher more soon. Watching it now.



Ronald K - Market Psychologist - A Stock Market Opportunist

My Whatsapp Talk - Get Whatsapp Installed

It was a powerful sharing session last evening on my recent trades like the S&P 500, GCCP, Alliance Minerals, Sembcorp ind and the list goes on. In the session, I shared how my philosophy in trading stocks and my way to picking the right growth stock. On top of that, I also shared my one and only Whatsapp service which I offered the attendees. Due to exceptionally high demand, I will conduct my next Whatsapp talk next Tuesday, July 5th. If you are interested in short term trading and our Whatsapp calls, you can look to click and register below:

On another note, the S&P 500 rose last evening. I believe there are numerous amount of people wants to know the outlook for the current market and more importantly, you all want to know how I made such day to day predictions accurately and hence, more will be shared during next Tuesday's workshop.

http://stockmarketmindgames.blogspot.sg/2016/06/s-500-my-game-plan-for-short-term.html



Ronald K - Market Psychologist - A Stock Market Opportunist

S&P 500 - Up Rising High

The S&P 500 rose to the selling zone and with bases built as predicted at 8:40am this morning. Click and read my blog post to find out more! The bull seems to come back and the bear is taking a breather. Will rebound be sustainable? I will put another post when the turning point is here. Don't miss it!

http://stockmarketmindgames.blogspot.sg/2016/06/s-500-my-game-plan-for-short-term.html

I will be holding my next talk next week for those who are interested in our Whatsapp. Please register if you are interested.



Ronald K - Market Psychologist - A Stock Market Opportunist

Resurgent Run For Reits Companies

The past two days have resulted in quite an amazing activity in particular the resurgent run for Reits as the odds for a rising rate for this year were slashed virtually to zero as a result of further uncertainty due to Brexit. There were even news that the Fed could launch another quantitative easing (QE4) on the back of all these uncertainties.

What has resulted from the news is a flight to safety to Reits as a potential safe haven for investors. It is interesting because the traditional safe haven used to be the gold and treasury bond but demand have been so rampant that investors are running to Reits as an alternative.

If you recall a few years back, the run was somewhat similar to what happened back then in 2013 when Reits were running high to such an amazing level that the spread between the yield it offered vs the treasury yield were compressed to the lowest. That was a sign that prudent investors should take profits off the table, regardless of whatever happens afterwards because it was simply unsustainable.

The run this time has a lot of room to run if we were to witness something similar to 2013 and given that the alternatives are poor and economic driven in nature, it appears that Reits are a safety net which investors are comfortable with.

Having said that, my approach has always been more towards taking off profits when I see there are opportunities to do so. I will definitely miss to sell at the highest but divesting them also means passing on the risk to the next person who thinks it's prudent to do so at this time. I could be dead wrong at the end of the day and miss those gains other people are enjoying but at least this prudent approach has served me very well over the past few years since I started investing.

I have taken profits off the table for FCT partially over the past couple of days at $1.985 and will continue to divest the other Reits that have been either fair or over valued at this time. You can be sure I will divest more as they continue to give me the opportunity to do so over the next couple of days.

Be fearful when others are greedy. This is herd investing at the very best.