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2016 is expected to be another tough year for investors, according to most analysts out there. With most bad news out there and expected lower corporate earnings for most S'pore listed companies plus lower GDP growth in S'pore, I do agree that it will be another rough year for investors. We have already endured a roller-coaster ride last year but be prepared to tighten your seat belts for another tough ride this year. As usual, stock picking becomes a crucial factor in this kind of market, and therefore I have identified some themes in 2016 that investors can take note of and hopefully pick some stocks that fit into these themes which can enhance your portfolio returns.
1. Transformation of public transport to bus contracting model. Already, LTA had started competitive tendering and awarded some contracts. I expect 2016 to be a transformative year as LTA continues to take over existing contracts to purchase buses and assets from transport operators. SBS Transit is expected to be the main player for this theme though ComfortDelgro as a whole and also SMRT should benefit as well.
2. Raising interest rate. We have seen some of the effects of this theme after Fed raises interest rate last December. REITs are expected to get hit from this theme but selected finance related stocks might benefit from the interest rate spread that they earn from raising interest rate.
3. Delisting and M&A. To play this theme, one have to identify companies which are being acquired or no longer needs the capital market. For delisting, I think it is worth looking at the s-chips space. I know that s-chips are not in favour now but there are a few delisting deals last year in this space and I expect more to come this year. Do look out for those s-chips which had been listed for many years and had not paid dividends for a long time and trading at depressed valuations with low or no volume being transacted everyday.
4. Market mis-pricing due to share consolidation. We have seen some of those stocks that had experienced high volatility after share consolidation. In fact, there are some stocks which had been mispriced immediately after consolidation and one can take advantage of this if he/she is sharp enough to acquire those stocks before they revert back to normal levels. With the deadline looming for stocks trading under 20cts in the MainBoard for the MTP requirement, they will have to consolidate or move to Catalist to avoid being on the SGX watchlist. Expect more share consolidations this year.
5. Commodity prices. It is difficult to play this theme as commodity prices had been very volatile in 2015. I have no idea whether commodity prices will recover this year or continue to go lower. Same for oil price and gold. Therefore, it is best to give this theme a miss unless you have the crystal ball to predict. I certainly do not have it. But for those who have the appetite for it, the pay off could be substantial if you made the right call.
As for my portfolio strategy, it will be as usual as per 2015. I will continue to:
1. Look for deep value stocks and overweight them.
2. Reduce/Eliminate underperforming and overvalued stocks.
3. Reduce the number of AGMs, EGMs etc.
4. Keep healthy.
5. The usuals.
Have a profitable 2016!
1. Transformation of public transport to bus contracting model. Already, LTA had started competitive tendering and awarded some contracts. I expect 2016 to be a transformative year as LTA continues to take over existing contracts to purchase buses and assets from transport operators. SBS Transit is expected to be the main player for this theme though ComfortDelgro as a whole and also SMRT should benefit as well.
2. Raising interest rate. We have seen some of the effects of this theme after Fed raises interest rate last December. REITs are expected to get hit from this theme but selected finance related stocks might benefit from the interest rate spread that they earn from raising interest rate.
3. Delisting and M&A. To play this theme, one have to identify companies which are being acquired or no longer needs the capital market. For delisting, I think it is worth looking at the s-chips space. I know that s-chips are not in favour now but there are a few delisting deals last year in this space and I expect more to come this year. Do look out for those s-chips which had been listed for many years and had not paid dividends for a long time and trading at depressed valuations with low or no volume being transacted everyday.
4. Market mis-pricing due to share consolidation. We have seen some of those stocks that had experienced high volatility after share consolidation. In fact, there are some stocks which had been mispriced immediately after consolidation and one can take advantage of this if he/she is sharp enough to acquire those stocks before they revert back to normal levels. With the deadline looming for stocks trading under 20cts in the MainBoard for the MTP requirement, they will have to consolidate or move to Catalist to avoid being on the SGX watchlist. Expect more share consolidations this year.
5. Commodity prices. It is difficult to play this theme as commodity prices had been very volatile in 2015. I have no idea whether commodity prices will recover this year or continue to go lower. Same for oil price and gold. Therefore, it is best to give this theme a miss unless you have the crystal ball to predict. I certainly do not have it. But for those who have the appetite for it, the pay off could be substantial if you made the right call.
As for my portfolio strategy, it will be as usual as per 2015. I will continue to:
1. Look for deep value stocks and overweight them.
2. Reduce/Eliminate underperforming and overvalued stocks.
3. Reduce the number of AGMs, EGMs etc.
4. Keep healthy.
5. The usuals.
Have a profitable 2016!
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