My Investment Portfolio (March 2016)

STI ended the month at around 2840 points, regaining much of the lost ground from the loss early this year but still ended the quarter down as compared to the start of the year. Still, it is the best performing month this year after the January market crash. Markets were helped by news that the US Fed would not hike interest rate so soon.

For this month, I have attended the following AGMs/EGMs/briefings - Saizen REIT, Del Monte, 8Telecom, Envictus, Techcomp and Mermaid.

For my top 30 holdings, Spindex is a new entry after it had done well for this month. Shangri-La Asia is also another new name in the HK$ denominated list after I added more to the stock and also due to its decent run-up after announcing their full-year results. Not much changes to the other holdings in the list except for Sarine Technologies, which continued to be volatile in its price movements and moved up a few places this month.

I have bought the following companies from the market this month - Broadway, Combine Will, Elec & Eltek, GLP, Hiap Seng, Hong Kong Land, Hotel Royal, Hwa Hong, Jardine Strategic, Mandarin Oriental, Shangri-La Asia, UIC, UOL and Yeo Hiap Seng. No sell trade was done.

I have participated in the following scrip dividend scheme this month - CapitaLand Retail China Trust. I have also subscribed to the following rights issue - OUE H Trust.

Next month will be a very busy one for me as the hectic AGM season goes into full swing. Most companies with financial year ending 31 December 2015 will be holding their AGMs in April. As usual, I will be attending some of these AGMs to get some updates from those companies and their strategies and business outlook ahead.

My S'pore Stock Portfolio - Top Holdings, cash investment only (correct as at 31 March 2016)

Top 30 Holdings (Sing$ Denominated shares)
1. United Engineers
2. Jardine C&C
3. Metro Holdings
4. Bonvests
5. Sarine Technologies 
6. Haw Par
7. Hong Fok
8. SGX
9. Hotel Grand Central
10. A-REIT 
11. Singapura Finance
12. Hotel Royal
13. The Hour Glass
14. UOL   
15. Hong Leong Finance
16. Old Chang Kee
17. ComfortDelgro 
18. Keppel T&T
19. GK Goh
20. Bukit Sembawang Estates
21. Hotel Properties
22. Isetan
23. Far East Orchard
24. Hiap Hoe
25. Sing Investment & Finance
26. CapitaMall Trust
27. VICOM
28. Spindex
29. Stamford Land
30. CapitaLand

Top 5 Holdings (US$ Denominated shares)
1. Jardine Strategic
2. Hong Kong Land 
3. Mandarin Oriental  
4. Jardine Matheson
5. Dairy Farm 

Top Holdings (HK$ Denominated shares)
1. Fortune REIT
2. Shangri-La Asia

Top Holdings (Aust$ Denominated shares)
1. AV Jennings

Top 5 Holdings (CPF OA investment)
1. Keppel Corp
2. Streettracks STI ETF
3. CapitaMall Trust
4. A-REIT
5. Challenger Technologies

My Hong Kong Stock Portfolio
1. Peace Mark Holdings - Under Voluntary Liquidation

My Australia Stock Portfolio
1. GPS Alliance Holdings Limited

My Unlisted Company Portfolio
1. Automated Touchstone Machines Ltd
2. Iconic Global Limited
3. Dongshan Group Ltd (formerly known as Greatronic Limited)
4. General Magnetics
5. Fastech Synergy
6. Beauty China- Under Liquidation
7. Memory Devices
8. Jurong Tech - In liquidation - Compulsory winding up (Insolvency)
9. FM Holdings
10. Japan Land - In liquidation - Members' voluntary winding up. Final meeting on 14 Apr 2016.
11. Zhonghui - In liquidation - Compulsory winding up (Insolvency)
12. FerroChina - Under Liquidation
13. FirstLink Investments
14. NEL Group
15. Jets Technics
16. Guangzhao Industrial Forest - In liquidation - Compulsory winding up (Insolvency)
17. Hongwei Technologies Limited (In Provisional Liquidation)
18. FDS Networks Group
19. Aussino Group - In liquidation - Creditors' voluntary winding up
20. China Oilfield Technology

My Unit Trust Portfolio:
http://www.fundsupermart.com/main/community/Portfolio_View.svdo?id=P199

SHS HOLDINGS W191216

For those holding the above company warrant, maybe it is time to consider converting them to shares. The record date for their upcoming dividend entitlement is as follows:

SHS HOLDINGS LTD. - 12 May 2016, 5pm. Final dividend 0.32cts per share, Special dividend 3.68cts per share.

Though the warrant expires on 16 DEC 2019, there seem to be no time value in it as it currently trades at around 7.6cts, with an exercise price of 20cts. Adding the exercise price to its current market price, it is still a bit lower than the current mother share market price.

The main reason I guess is because the warrant is currently deeply in the money, the time value of the warrant is almost zero. Which means, the intrinsic value of the warrant is simply market value of the warrant + exercise price.

For long term investors of SHS Holdings, I guess it is time to convert to lock in the dividends.

Singapore Strategy - UOB Kay Hian 2016-03-15: Back To Square One

Singapore Strategy

Singapore Strategy - Back To Square One 

The recent bounce in the FSSTI has brought the market back to the early-16 levels. 

We highlight our preferred stocks that can navigate volatile markets and with better earnings visibility. 

WHAT’S NEW 

 Back to square one after the recent bounce. 

• The FSSTI has bounced 12.6% from its ytd low of 2,528. The FSSTI is down 1.2% on a ytd basis. This report highlights our latest views and how we would navigate the volatility, which we expect to remain elevated. 

Continue Reading »

Oil & Gas - DBS Research 2016-03-15: Sinking further?

EZION HOLDINGS LIMITED 5ME.SI  SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD U96.SI  YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD BS6.SI 

Oil & Gas - Sinking further? 

• 4Q15 saw the realisation of the long anticipated impairment/provisions 
• More could be seen for Ezra, Cosco and Keppel in 2016 
• Ezion and Sembcorp Industries (SCI) remain our BUYs among Singapore O&G stocks 

Continue Reading »

Sinamars Land - RHB Invest 2016-03-15: Deeply Undervalued

SINARMAS LAND LIMITED A26.SI 

Sinamars Land - Deeply Undervalued 

• Sinarmas Land is our Top Pick to ride on the cyclical recovery in Indonesia’s real estate market. 
• We expect its FY16 recurring net profit to rebound by 29% YoY, on the back of higher marketing sales in its township projects in Greater Jakarta, as well as higher rental income. 
• The stock, which has under-performed in the last year due to poor investor sentiment towards emerging markets, is deeply undervalued at current levels – its stake in BSD alone is equivalent to its current market capitalisation. Everything else comes free. 

Continue Reading »

Ascott Residence Trust - OCBC Investment 2016-03-15: Second acquisition in the US

REITASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST A68U.SI 

Ascott Residence Trust: Second acquisition in the US 

• Ascott Residence Trust (ART) announced that it has entered into a conditional sale and purchase agreement to acquire a hotel known as Sheraton Tribeca New York Hotel located in Downtown Manhattan, US. 
• The purchase consideration is US$158m (~S$218m), which represents a 4.8% discount to the independent valuation of US$166m. 

Continue Reading »

Del Monte Pacific - UOB Kay Hian 2016-03-15: 3QFY16: A Challenging Quarter Mired By One-off Charges But Nonetheless A Turnaround

DEL MONTE PACIFIC LIMITED D03.SI 

Del Monte Pacific (DELM SP) 3QFY16: A Challenging Quarter Mired By One-off Charges But Nonetheless A Turnaround 

• DMPL’s net profit improved from the loss of US$2.2m in 3QFY15 to a gain of US$0.6m for 3QFY16. 
• Sales were down by 7% yoy due to lost contracts in the US but market share for the core US retail business remained stable amid a challenging quarter. 

Continue Reading »

Ascott Residence Trust - DBS Research 2016-03-15: Second bite of the big apple

ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST A68U.SI 

Ascott Residence Trust - Second bite of the big apple 

• Increased US presence with second hotel acquisition in New York for S$218m 
• S$100m equity placement at S$1.055 to fund acquisition 
• 0.3-1.4% uplift to FY16-18F DPU 
• DPU payment of 1.5-1.6 Scts to existing unitholders prior to placement 

Continue Reading »

Ascott Residence Trust - CIMB Research 2016-03-14: Bulking up in the US

ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST A68U.SI 

Ascott Residence Trust - Bulking up in the US 

• ART announced its second acquisition in the US today - the Sheraton Tribeca New York Hotel - for US$158m or S$218m (US$428,000/key). 
• Acquisition is accretive by all counts. Property acquired at > 6.8% NPI yield. 
• Acquisition to be financed via US onshore debt of c.US$100m and private placement, launched concurrently with the acquisition. 

Continue Reading »

Mermaid Maritime - DBS Research 2016-03-07: More pain ahead

MERMAID MARITIME PUBLIC CO LTD DU4.SI 

Mermaid Maritime - More pain ahead 

4Q15 results were weak; impairments larger than expected. 

• The Group incurred a loss of US$245m for the quarter as Mermaid booked a US$163m impairment charge on its assets and a US$65m share of impairment from associate Asia Offshore Drilling (AOD), suggesting a roughly 40% haircut on vessel/rig asset values. 
• Subsea vessel utilisation dipped to 56% in 4Q15, down from ~80% in the previous two quarters, a result of both a challenging subsea market and seasonal factors. 

Continue Reading »

Ho Bee Land Limited - Phillip Securities 2016-03-14: Attractive Valuation

HO BEE LAND LIMITED H13.SI 

Ho Bee Land Limited - Attractive Valuation 

• One of the most heavily discounted (Price/Book) locally-listed property developer. 
• Ho Bee has gradually built up a strong portfolio with stable recurring income from offices in Singapore and London (Rental income made up 100% of income in FY14 and FY15). 
• The Metropolis, the largest property in the portfolio by GAV, is 100% occupied with little lease expiries over next 2 years. 

Continue Reading »

Zhongmin Baihui Retail Group - Phillip Securities 2016-03-14: Best-laid plans of mice and men oft go astray

ZHONGMIN BAIHUI RETAIL GRP LTD 5SR.SI 

Zhongmin Baihui Retail Group (ZBR) - Best-laid plans of mice and men oft go astray 

• Plans laid out but… 
  1. Unusually unfavorable weather affected winter sales in 4Q15 and weighed on whole year earnings. 
  2. Expansion plan hits speed bumps along the road – execution as well as regulatory challenges. 

Continue Reading »

Chip Eng Seng - Phillip Securities 2016-03-14: Challenges in operating environment to persist

CHIP ENG SENG CORPORATION LTD C29.SI 

Chip Eng Seng Corporation Ltd - Challenges in operating environment to persist 

• Encouraging performance at Alexandra Park Hotel despite headwinds in the hospitality sector. 
• Challenging environment ahead for properties construction sector and excess supply of local unsold properties could continue lead to weak properties sales. 

Continue Reading »

SGX Stock Alert: Volume & Price Breakout on 2016-03-14

trending_upStocks closed at its 60 days high with more than double of average volume 

Stock	Last Traded on 2016-03-14	Volume Traded on 2016-03-14	Price Range of Previous 60 Days	Average Volume of Previous 60 Days
FU YU CORPORATION LTD (F13.SI)	SGD 0.190	15,679,500	0.181 ~ 0.139	1,020,416
CSC HOLDINGS LTD (C06.SI)	SGD 0.018	15,956,300	0.017 ~ 0.012	2,349,502
YOMA STRATEGIC HOLDINGS LTD (Z59.SI)	SGD 0.530	31,209,000	0.495 ~ 0.400	4,649,855
NTEGRATOR INTERNATIONAL LTD (5HC.SI)	SGD 0.016	14,175,400	0.015 ~ 0.009	2,511,459
INDOFOOD AGRI RESOURCES LTD. (5JS.SI)	SGD 0.540	6,161,300	0.525 ~ 0.410	1,003,123
SINO GRANDNESS FOOD IND GP LTD (T4B.SI)	SGD 0.550	10,836,500	0.515 ~ 0.295	3,062,245
COMBINE WILL INTL HLDGS LTD (N0Z.SI) CD	SGD 0.750	211,300	0.725 ~ 0.410	6,089
FEDERAL INT(2000) LTD (BDU.SI) CD	SGD 0.275	4,414,500	0.270 ~ 0.190	149,755
JEP HOLDINGS LTD. (5FA.SI)	SGD 0.038	6,792,200	0.031 ~ 0.020	277,691
CEI CONTRACT MANUFACTURING LTD (AVV.SI) CD	SGD 0.680	341,100	0.675 ~ 0.490	40,868
ASIAMEDIC LIMITED (505.SI)	SGD 0.073	935,000	0.070 ~ 0.061	196,405
AVI-TECH ELECTRONICS LIMITED (BKY.SI) CD	SGD 0.225	307,500	0.220 ~ 0.183	67,886
ELEC & ELTEK INT CO LTD (E16.SI)	USD 0.890	41,400	0.850 ~ 0.625	10,391
UNITED ENGINEERS LTD ORD (U04.SI) CD	SGD 2.220	2,352,800	2.140 ~ 1.715	698,609
JAPFA LTD. (UD2.SI)	SGD 0.565	2,355,000	0.555 ~ 0.405	704,373
CHINA AVIATION OIL(S) CORP LTD (G92.SI)	SGD 0.770	737,100	0.760 ~ 0.580	228,273

Continue Reading »

SGX Top Gainers, Top Losers, Top Volume, Top Value & FTSE ST Indices 2016-03-14

FTSE ST Indices 14-March-2016, Monday

FTSE STI Index

+18.20
(+0.64%)

2847.06

All-Share Index

+3.57
(+0.52%)

693.65

Mid Cap Index

+1.42
(+0.21%)

681.46

Small Cap Index

+0.69 (+0.17%)

401.63

Fledgling Index

+2.43 (+0.30%)

810.12

Catalist Index

-1.66 (-0.35%)

469.78

Basic

-1.53
(-1.48%)

101.53

China Index

+0.83
(+0.43%)

195.08

China Top Index

+1.24
(+0.76%)

164.12

Consumer Goods Index

-1.75
(-0.37%)

471.36

Consumer Services Index

+5.15
(+0.65%)

793.75

Financials Index

+4.72
(+0.63%)

750.61

Health Care Index

-4.60
(-0.31%)

1476.41

Industrials Index

+4.02
(+0.59%)

683.59

Maritime Index

+0.30
(+0.15%)

207.01

Oil & Gas Index

-0.12
(-0.03%)

365.22

Real Estate Holding

+1.80
(+0.27%)

662.72

Real Estate Index

+0.58
(+0.08%)

686.27

Real Estate Investment

-0.51
(-0.07%)

719.40

Technology Index

+2.82
(+0.98%)

290.01

Telecommunications Inde

+5.62
(+0.58%)

977.91

Utilities Index

+1.96
(+0.50%)

396.27

Price Movement Distribution

Not Traded
275

< -5%
45

< -2%
57

< 0%
84

No Change
125

> 0%
94

> 2%
61

> 5%
44

Continue Reading »

Del Monte Pacific - DBS Research 2016-03-14: Turned profitable but below expectations

DEL MONTE PACIFIC LIMITED D03.SI 

Del Monte Pacific - Turned profitable but below expectations 

• 3Q16 earnings below expectations 
• US operations impacted by loss of government contract, higher expenses 
• FY16F earnings revised up on one-off gains, but core profits lower 

Continue Reading »

Keppel Corporation - UOB Kay Hian 2016-03-14: Earnings Update ~ Impact Of Transocean’s And Golar’s Deferrals

KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED BN4.SI 

Keppel Corporation: Earnings Update ~ Impact Of Transocean’s And Golar’s Deferrals 

• Keppel’s two FLNG projects from Golar have had their Notice to Proceed timelines deferred to end-16. 
• Given the sizeable combined contract size of US$1.4b, we are removing it from our earnings estimate till the projects have formally started, and hence our 2016-18 earnings forecasts are reduced by 2-4%. 

Continue Reading »

Offshore & Marine - UOB Kay Hian 2016-03-14: Global Bellwethers ~ When The Going Gets Tough, The Tough Get Going

Offshore & MarineEZION HOLDINGS LIMITED 5ME.SI  NAM CHEONG LIMITED N4E.SI  KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED BN4.SI  EZION HOLDINGS LIMITED 5ME.SI 

Offshore & Marine – Global Bellwethers: When The Going Gets Tough, The Tough Get Going 

• We studied management comments in the recent 4Q15 results announcements of global oil-service bellwethers. 
• In 2015, the bellwethers were the first off the block to have adopted austerity measures to weather a deep downturn. 

Continue Reading »

Sembcorp Industries - OCBC Investment 2016-03-14: Up 38% since 21 Jan 2016 low of S$2.19

SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD U96.SI 

Sembcorp Industries: Up 38% since 21 Jan 2016 low of S$2.19 

• Since our 29 Jan 2016 sector report in which we highlighted the undervaluation of Sembcorp Industries’ (SCI) utilities segment, its share price has appreciated by 35%, compared to the STI’s 10% gain over the same period. 
• In Jan, fear of an SMM privatisation by SCI was at its peak, and that weighed on SCI’s share price. 

Continue Reading »

Roxy-Pacific Holdings - OCBC Investment 2016-03-14: Executing on diversification strategy

ROXY-PACIFIC HOLDINGS LIMITED E8Z.SI 

Roxy-Pacific Holdings: Executing on diversification strategy 

• Continues expansion in Australia 
• Launched Noku Roxy hotel brand 
• Prudent land-banking in SG 

Continue Reading »

Target Price & Analyst Ratings summary of the week (12-Mar-2016)

Target Price & Analyst Ratings of the week as of 12-Mar-2016.

Ascott Residence Trust, City Developments, Capitaland Mall Trust, Ezion, Frasers Centerpoint Trust, Keppel Corp, Mapletree Logistics Trust, OSIM, OCBC Bank, Sembcorp Industries, Sembcorp Marine.

ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST (A68U.SI)

CIMB Research
2016-03-06

HOLD

1.190

OCBC Research
2016-03-11

BUY

1.280

UOB KayHian
2016-03-03

BUY

1.390

Average of 3 TPs: S$1.287. 

Last Traded on 11-Mar: S$1.130. 

Upside: 13.89%. 

More @ ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST (A68U.SI)

Continue Reading »

Singapore REITs - OCBC Investment 2016-03-11: Sector Outlook

ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST A68U.SI  CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS J85.SI  FRASERS COMMERCIAL TRUST ND8U.SI  MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST M44U.SI 

Singapore REITs - SECTOR OUTLOOK 

• Retail REITs: Preference remains for suburban-focused retail REITs. 
• Office REITs: Proactive approach by REIT managers. 
• Industrial REITs: Macro and supply woes. 
• Hospitality REITs: Outlook still largely cautious.

Continue Reading »

Singapore REITs - OCBC Investment 2016-03-11: Still Weathering the Storm

CAPITALAND MALL TRUST C38U.SI  FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST J69U.SI  KEPPEL DC REIT AJBU.SI  MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST M44U.SI 

Singapore REITs - Still Weathering the Storm 

• Weakness seen in hospitality sector 
• Flight to safety 
• FCT, KDCREIT and MLT our top picks 

S-REITs have proven to be a defensive haven 

Continue Reading »

SGX Stock Alert: Volume & Price Breakout on 2016-03-11

trending_upStocks closed at its 60 days high with more than double of average volume 

Stock	Last Traded on 2016-03-11	Volume Traded on 2016-03-11	Price Range of Previous 60 Days	Average Volume of Previous 60 Days
SINO GRANDNESS FOOD IND GP LTD (T4B.SI)	SGD 0.510	12,744,500	0.465 ~ 0.295	2,751,229
POLARIS LTD. (5BI.SI)	SGD 0.010	8,938,800	0.009 ~ 0.004	2,341,916
INDOFOOD AGRI RESOURCES LTD. (5JS.SI)	SGD 0.520	7,414,500	0.515 ~ 0.410	864,402
FEDERAL INT(2000) LTD (BDU.SI) CD	SGD 0.265	871,600	0.250 ~ 0.190	130,426
ELEC & ELTEK INT CO LTD (E16.SI)	USD 0.850	48,800	0.795 ~ 0.625	9,403
MUN SIONG ENGINEERING LIMITED (MF6.SI)	SGD 0.064	150,800	0.063 ~ 0.052	45,717
MM2 ASIA LTD. (43D.SI)	SGD 0.515	2,010,800	0.505 ~ 0.400	804,827
CEI CONTRACT MANUFACTURING LTD (AVV.SI) CD	SGD 0.670	83,600	0.645 ~ 0.490	39,122

trending_downStocks closed at its 60 days low with more than double of average volume 

Stock	Last Traded on 2016-03-11	Volume Traded on 2016-03-11	Price Range of Previous 60 Days	Average Volume of Previous 60 Days
OUE HOSPITALITY TRUST (SK7.SI) XR	SGD 0.695	3,424,600	0.770 ~ 0.715	1,261,831
SAIZEN REAL ESTATE INV TRUST (T8JU.SI) XD	SGD 0.085	2,980,400	1.125 ~ 1.065	618,529

Do feel free to suggest the alerts on other criteria that you would like to see. 

SGX Top Gainers, Top Losers, Top Volume, Top Value & FTSE ST Indices 2016-03-11

FTSE ST Indices 11-March-2016, Friday

FTSE STI Index

+19.74
(+0.70%)

2828.86

All-Share Index

+4.23
(+0.62%)

690.08

Mid Cap Index

+3.51
(+0.52%)

680.04

Small Cap Index

+2.40 (+0.60%)

400.94

Fledgling Index

+2.76 (+0.34%)

807.69

Catalist Index

+4.96 (+1.06%)

471.44

Basic

+1.82
(+1.80%)

103.06

China Index

+1.92
(+1.00%)

194.25

China Top Index

+1.31
(+0.81%)

162.88

Consumer Goods Index

+4.01
(+0.85%)

473.11

Consumer Services Index

+4.90
(+0.63%)

788.60

Financials Index

+4.91
(+0.66%)

745.89

Health Care Index

+2.37
(+0.16%)

1481.01

Industrials Index

+0.90
(+0.13%)

679.57

Maritime Index

+1.84
(+0.90%)

206.71

Oil & Gas Index

+6.33
(+1.76%)

365.34

Real Estate Holding

+4.42
(+0.67%)

660.92

Real Estate Index

+3.05
(+0.45%)

685.69

Real Estate Investment

+1.85
(+0.26%)

719.91

Technology Index

+2.51
(+0.88%)

287.19

Telecommunications Inde

+4.11
(+0.42%)

972.29

Utilities Index

+8.11
(+2.10%)

394.31

Price Movement Distribution

Not Traded
285

< -5%
43

< -2%
32

< 0%
82

No Change
108

> 0%
113

> 2%
69

> 5%
53

Continue Reading »

Telecom Sector - DBS Research 2016-03-11: Why a Price War Now?

M1 LIMITED B2F.SI  STARHUB LTD CC3.SI 

Telecom Sector - Why a Price War Now? 

• Effective pricing for higher-end data plans slashed by 25-50% even before the spectrum auction in 3Q16. 
• Intention to discourage the entry of new player even at the cost of near-term revenue; FY16F earnings may be reduced 5-8% for M1 and StarHub in our estimates. 
• Maintain FULLY VALUED on StarHub and HOLD on M1. 

Continue Reading »

Property & REITs - UOB Kay Hian 2016-03-11: Malaysia Marketing Trip Takeaways

Singapore Property WING TAI HLDGS LTD W05.SI  CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITEDC09.SI  ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST A68U.SI  MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST M44U.SI  CAPITALAND COMMERCIAL TRUST C61U.SI 

Singapore Property & REITs ‒ Malaysia Marketing Trip Takeaways 

• Our marketing trip in Malaysia saw sustained interest in S-REITs as clients position for a slower-than-anticipated interest rate hike. 
• Our discussions centred upon interest rate impact, potential unwinding of property cooling measures, the sharing economy’s impact on the hospitality sector and supply concerns in the commercial, retail and industrial space. 

Continue Reading »

Fu Yu Corp - RHB Invest 2016-03-11: Top Pick across the manufacturing space

FU YU CORPORATION LTD F13.SI 

Fu Yu Corp - Top Pick across the manufacturing space  

• We brought Fu Yu Corporation (FUYU SP), our top Pick across the manufacturing space in Singapore on a Non-Deal Roadshow yesterday and here are our key takeaways from it. 
• Firstly, management indicated that more dividends likely to be given as long as retained profits and profits generated can support the payout. 
• We have also discovered that the share buyback mandate to purchase up to 10% of its total share has been approved and management is in the midst of allocating its budget for the buyback. 

Continue Reading »

Singapore Rigbuilders - DBS Research 2016-03-11: Looming credit risks?

SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD U96.SI  SEMBCORP MARINE LTD S51.SI  KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED BN4.SI 

Singapore Rigbuilders - Looming credit risks? 

• Moody’s downgrade tightens drillers’ access to funds 
• Triggering another wave of deferment and cancellation of rig orders 
• Transocean delays five jack-ups with Keppel by up to two years; further push-back likely for SMM’s drillships 

Continue Reading »

Keppel Corp - DBS Research 2016-03-11: More provisions?

KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED BN4.SI 

Keppel Corp - More provisions? 

Reiterate HOLD with TP of S$5.25. 

• We prefer to monitor the development in Brazil and oil market before revisiting Keppel. We are wary of potential provisions of up to S$200m for the higher-risk non-Sete projects. 
• We have trimmed our FY16-17 PATMI by 1.5-2.8% in response to the further delay of Transocean units. 

Continue Reading »

Singapore Post Ltd - CIMB Research 2016-03-11: It gets busier at the checkout line

Singpost SINGAPORE POST LIMITED S08.SI 

Singapore Post Ltd - It gets busier at the checkout line 

• We think SPOST’s share price has been overly punished and deserves to trade up to higher valuations on earnings delivery in ecommerce logistics. 
• We also address concerns on its M&As, declining mail volumes, its net debt position and competition from startups. We think these are overplayed. 

Continue Reading »

Plantation Companies - DBS Research 2016-03-10: Near-term strength

PlantationWILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED F34.SI  FIRST RESOURCES LIMITED EB5.SI  INDOFOOD AGRI RESOURCES LTD 5JS.SI  BUMITAMA AGRI LTD P8Z.SI  GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES LTD E5H.SI 

Plantation Companies - Near-term strength 

• Malaysian Feb 16 output of 1.043m MT was 7% lower than our forecast of 1.119m MT. 
• But 15% m-o-m drop in exports kept end-Feb 16 inventory level of 2.169m MT within expectations. 
• Output to recover in Mar 16; but so will exports; endMar 16 Malaysian palm oil stockpile may drop to 2.022m MT. 

Continue Reading »

SGX Stock Alert: Volume & Price Breakout on 2016-03-10

trending_upStocks closed at its 60 days high with more than double of average volume 

Stock	Last Traded on 2016-03-10	Volume Traded on 2016-03-10	Price Range of Previous 60 Days	Average Volume of Previous 60 Days
MOYA HOLDINGS ASIA LIMITED (5WE.SI)	SGD 0.040	53,737,700	0.039 ~ 0.029	2,859,988
HYFLUX LTD (600.SI)	SGD 0.640	6,444,500	0.635 ~ 0.470	1,391,203
ATTILAN GROUP LIMITED (5ET.SI)	SGD 0.005	5,495,000	0.005 ~ 0.002	1,543,919
YANLORD LAND GROUP LIMITED (Z25.SI)	SGD 1.200	10,173,400	1.195 ~ 0.955	2,380,079
POLARIS LTD. (5BI.SI)	SGD 0.009	8,017,600	0.008 ~ 0.004	2,212,559
IEV HOLDINGS LIMITED (5TN.SI)	SGD 0.114	166,137,400	0.068 ~ 0.050	202,014
BUMITAMA AGRI LTD. (P8Z.SI)	SGD 0.805	3,784,400	0.795 ~ 0.660	464,993
FU YU CORPORATION LTD (F13.SI)	SGD 0.179	5,347,500	0.175 ~ 0.139	890,559
ELEC & ELTEK INT CO LTD (E16.SI)	USD 0.790	38,400	0.785 ~ 0.625	8,741
VALUETRONICS HOLDINGS LIMITED (BN2.SI)	SGD 0.440	1,790,300	0.435 ~ 0.370	484,779
FIRST REAL ESTATE INV TRUST (AW9U.SI)	SGD 1.230	1,158,000	1.215 ~ 1.150	373,503
MTQ CORPORATION LIMITED (M05.SI)	SGD 0.550	43,700	0.550 ~ 0.410	15,181
WHEELOCK PROPERTIES (S) LTD (M35.SI)	SGD 1.480	497,100	1.480 ~ 1.340	172,934
AVI-TECH ELECTRONICS LIMITED (BKY.SI)	SGD 0.220	150,000	0.215 ~ 0.183	63,795

Continue Reading »

SGX Top Gainers, Top Losers, Top Volume, Top Value & FTSE ST Indices 2016-03-10

FTSE ST Indices 10-March-2016, Thursday

FTSE STI Index

-1.31
(-0.05%)

2809.12

All-Share Index

+0.33
(+0.05%)

685.85

Mid Cap Index

+1.41
(+0.21%)

676.53

Small Cap Index

-0.49 (-0.12%)

398.54

Fledgling Index

-1.85 (-0.23%)

804.93

Catalist Index

+2.31 (+0.50%)

466.48

Basic

-1.49
(-1.45%)

101.24

China Index

+1.22
(+0.64%)

192.33

China Top Index

+0.63
(+0.39%)

161.57

Consumer Goods Index

+3.85
(+0.83%)

469.10

Consumer Services Index

-2.15
(-0.27%)

783.70

Financials Index

+0.95
(+0.13%)

740.98

Health Care Index

-0.96
(-0.06%)

1478.64

Industrials Index

+2.60
(+0.38%)

678.67

Maritime Index

-0.44
(-0.21%)

204.87

Oil & Gas Index

-5.45
(-1.50%)

359.01

Real Estate Holding

+4.34
(+0.67%)

656.50

Real Estate Index

+3.00
(+0.44%)

682.64

Real Estate Investment

+1.84
(+0.26%)

718.06

Technology Index

-5.62
(-1.94%)

284.68

Telecommunications Inde

-2.34
(-0.24%)

968.18

Utilities Index

-2.59
(-0.67%)

386.20

Price Movement Distribution

Not Traded
282

< -5%
46

< -2%
57

< 0%
89

No Change
140

> 0%
90

> 2%
44

> 5%
37

Continue Reading »

Dairy Farm - DBS Research 2016-03-10: Turning more efficient

DAIRY FARM INT'L HOLDINGS LTD D01.SI 

Dairy Farm - Turning more efficient 

• Expect more efficient operations by FY17F 
• We believe IT, procurement and supply chain investment should yield results by FY17F 
• 2H15/FY15 earnings within expectations 
• Maintain BUY, TP US$7.03

Continue Reading »

Singapore Banking - UOB Kay Hian 2016-03-10: The Beginning Of The Return To Normalcy

OCBC OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP O39.SI  DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD D05.SI 

Banking – Singapore The Beginning Of The Return To Normalcy 

• Share prices of banks started correcting on 11 Aug 15 after the PBOC introduced a new market-oriented reference rate mechanism, which triggered the depreciation of the renminbi and concerns over competitive devaluation across ASEAN countries. 
• Sentiments on banks should recover now that the renminbi is no longer under attack. 
• Top picks are OCBC and DBS. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. 

Continue Reading »

OSIM International Ltd - Phillip Securities 2016-03-10: Potentially raise the bet

OSIM INTERNATIONAL LTD O23.SI 

OSIM International Ltd - Potentially raise the bet 

• Unconditional cash offer of S$1.32 to delist and privatise OSIM International Ltd. Our last rating is Buy with TP at S$1.35. 
• Recommend minority shareholder who have their investments in-the-money to accept offer, otherwise, adopt a wait-and-see approach. 

Continue Reading »

Hospitality REITs - OCBC Investment 2016-03-10: Outlook still largely cautious

CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS CDLHT J85.SI  ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST A68U.SI 

Hospitality REITs: Outlook still largely cautious 

• Recent statistics released from Singapore Tourism Board (STB) revealed that overall international visitor arrivals to Singapore grew by a marginal 0.9% to 15.2m in 2015. This comes in at close to the mid-end of STB’s forecast range of 15.1-15.5m visitors for the full year. 
• Tourism receipts dipped 6.8% to S$22.0b. 

Continue Reading »

OUE Hospitality Trust - OCBC Investment 2016-03-10: Lower DPU forecasts by 15% to 17%; Maintain HOLD

OUE HOSPITALITY TRUST SK7.SI 

OUE Hospitality Trust: Lower DPU forecasts by 15% to 17%; Maintain HOLD 

• Rights issue to fund CPEX acquisition 
• Extension of a prime asset at Changi 
• Acquisition is DPU-dilutive 

Continue Reading »

Knowing my willingness and ability to take risk

In finance world, willingness and ability to take risk belong to 2 different concepts. Willingness to take risk refers to one’s character, education, investment experience, culture and even religion. 

For instance, many colleagues around me are high income earners. However, they only invest in time deposits as they are either conservative, have poor experience in investment or simply cannot invest due to religious constrains. They are unwilling to take risk for mainly emotional reasons. 

On the other hand, ability to take risk refers to quantifiable criteria like level of wealth, investment horizon, liquidity preferences and investment objectives. A investor with $5M in his account will most likely not hesitate to invest $250k into a high yield bond. His ability to take risk comes from his ability to lose (more) compared to the investor with a much lower level of wealth. 

Similarly with a lower liquidity preference and longer time horizon; investors are recognised as having higher ability to take risk and hence often advised to invest in riskier asset classes to enhance returns. 

In a bullish market, investors’ ability to take risk increase dramatically as their wealth increase in tandem with the rising market; the euphoria sets in, reinforcing their positive experience and thus raising their willingness to take higher risk. Unfortunately, all bull markets will eventually lead to high levels of speculation towards the end cycle of bull markets. For instance, the China market rallied more than 50% within 1 year of mutual fund investment. I took profit then, realising close to a 50% gain as seen below due to the unsustainable yearly returns. 

Vice versa, a falling market will always lead to lower stock trading volume as investors become poorer and reduce their ability and willingness (due to poor experience) to buy risk assets. 

However, the above definitions are purely academic. Ability and willingness to take risk, really, is subjective and varies for an investor sometimes even at different times of a day!

Nobody truly knows their willingness and ability to take risk until going through at least one bull and bear market cycle. Suitability tests on investments are just a rough gauge at best to determine one’s risk profile. 

This is the same concept for inflation figures. Our official figure for inflation is between 2%-4% over the past few years. However, the inflation figure is only true for us if we consume products in the exact same composition of the basket of goods used to calculate inflation. 

In reality, every one’s inflation figure is subjective; by the same token, every individual’s risk profile is unique and cannot be measured using standard questionnaires. 

The current bear market is into its 11th month. Till date I have reinvested all the dividends (for funds) and traded bank bonds (which have rallied due to risk aversion) to higher yielding bonds. At times, I do have regrets of not selling EVERYTHING at the peak (who doesn't!) and purchasing now instead. However, every bear market I experience will only reinforce my mindset to stomach risk, enhancing my willingness to take risk. It also serves as a test of my current portfolio's Value at Risk and its ability to resist market shocks like now. In fact I have a better idea of how my portfolio will behave during stressful market conditions. 

Thus, in order to maximise your return on investment given your risk profile, stay invested in bear markets and lime me, you will know yourself better on your ability and willingness to take risk!